内外套日报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the import profit and internal - external price differences of various commodities on May 23, 2025, and analyzes the market trends and trading strategies of different industries [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence in the internal - external arbitrage of non - ferrous metals [1]. - It also points out that different industries are affected by various factors, including trade policies, seasonal patterns, and exchange rate fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton, but now the situation has reversed. Continuous attention to subsequent tariff policy changes is needed [1]. - Oilseeds and Oils: These commodities have a high import dependence, with smooth trade and logistics. The risks of the international industrial chain are transmitted to domestic terminals through basis contracts, and the focus is on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore have increased, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. Overseas macro factors cause strong short - term disturbances, while the domestic macro situation is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - term, the global balance sheet shows a slight surplus compared to China's [1]. 3.3 Energy - SC: The on - shore spot discount has weakened, and the internal - external price difference has also weakened. - FU: In summer, the internal - external price difference maintains a weak pattern, and the internal - external spread of FU09 is compressing. - LU: The previous valuation has been realized, and the internal - external price difference is starting to decline. - PG: The external market shows that FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased, and the oil - gas ratio is oscillating. The internal - external price difference has significantly decreased, and FEI - MOPJ has slightly declined. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East have decreased [1]. 3.4 PX - Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has significantly converged, and the valuation is becoming neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3.5 Precious Metals - For precious metals, the abnormal movement of the RMB exchange rate has supported the domestic price, causing the internal - external price ratio to quickly decline. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali festival in India, which supports gold consumption, also contribute to the decline of the internal - external price ratio. - The spot discount of silver has widened, and the import window has closed [1]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - Tin: As overseas mines and Burmese mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage. The LME inventory has been continuously low recently. - Zinc: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. 3.7 Exchange Rates - On May 23, 2025, the US dollar index, the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Brazilian real showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and annual periods [1].