建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and there may be new lows in the next two weeks. However, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a turning point of bottoming out and rebounding in about two weeks under the changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - On May 23, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures continued to decline, hitting new lows for September contracts since June 2017 and September 2016 respectively. The J2509 contract closed at 1383 yuan/ton, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 25,439 lots and a position of 55,648 lots. The JM2509 contract closed at 801.5 yuan/ton, down 4.01%, with a trading volume of 491,253 lots, a position of 521,877 lots, and an increase of 27,491 lots in position [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts continued to decline. The green column of the daily - line MACD of the coke 2509 contract turned to expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to expand [8]. 3.2. Market Outlook - Coke: In the past five weeks, the coke output of independent coking plants has been hovering near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke output of steel mills has declined slightly compared with late April. The coke inventory at ports has significantly decreased in the past five weeks, but the inventory removal speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding new downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss after two consecutive weeks of profit, mainly because the second - round price increase of coke spot prices did not appear after the first - round increase in mid - April, which instead created conditions for steel mills to propose a price cut again, which was implemented on May 16 [10]. - Coking Coal: From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained at a high level, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants has significantly increased, and the clean coal inventory has risen to a relatively high level again. The inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased in the past five weeks, and the port inventory has also significantly returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills has increased steadily. When steel mills still have relatively sufficient inventory, if coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal work and will issue the central budget investment plan for urban renewal in 2025 by the end of June. The US Treasury bond auction interest rate has risen again, leading to a triple - kill of the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, and the risk appetite of the international financial market has declined again [10]. 3.3. Industry News - From January to April 2025, China's total foreign direct investment was 57.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Among them, non - financial foreign direct investment was 51.04 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Non - financial direct investment in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative was 12.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to April, the turnover of China's foreign contracted projects was 47.11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the newly signed contract value was 76.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. Among them, the turnover of Chinese enterprises' contracted projects in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative was 37.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and the newly signed contract value was 64.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [12]. - On May 23, the People's Bank of China carried out 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method for a term of one year [12]. - According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - May, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.33 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the previous month, a decline of 2.0%, and the decline in inventory continued to narrow; an increase of 1.74 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 26.4%; and a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the same period last year, a decline of 25.2% [12]. - From January to April, the total electricity consumption in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid was 519.18 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the national average. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries, and residential living increased by 7.2%, 3.2%, 5.8%, and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. In April, affected by low temperatures and tariff shocks, the growth of electricity demand in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid slowed down, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Against the background of economic pressure, all regions stepped up efforts to promote industrial development. The electricity consumption of the secondary industry increased by 3.5% year - on - year, and its contribution rate to the growth of total electricity consumption still exceeded 60%, playing a key supporting role in maintaining stable electricity consumption growth. Among them, the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased by 4.8% year - on - year in April, which indirectly confirmed that China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential [12][13]. - On May 23, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous day, a decrease of 3.95% from the previous week, and an increase of 5.49% from the same period last month [13]. - As of May 18, on the 25th anniversary of the opening of the Shuohuang Railway, it had completed 504.6982 million tons of coal transportation and 16.2674 million tons of non - coal transportation, with a cumulative freight volume of over 5.21 billion tons, achieving 9,131 consecutive days of safe production and operation [13]. - According to the latest data released by the World Steel Association, in April 2025, the crude steel output of 69 countries included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 155.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The top ten crude steel - producing countries in the world in April included China, India, Japan, the United States, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Brazil, and Iran. In April, China's crude steel output was 86 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; India's was 12.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; Japan's was 6.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%; the US's was 6.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Meanwhile, Russia's was 5.8 million tons (estimated), a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%; South Korea's was 5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; Turkey's was 3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. Germany's was 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%; Brazil's was 2.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; Iran's was 3.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to April, the cumulative global crude steel output was 624 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the crude steel output of China, India, Japan, the United States, and Russia was 345 million tons, 53.2 million tons, 27 million tons, 26.4 million tons, and 23.4 million tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of 0.4%, 6.9%, - 5.3%, 0.0%, and - 4.5% respectively. Meanwhile, the crude steel output of South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Brazil, and Iran was 20.5 million tons, 12.3 million tons, 11.4 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.6 million tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 3.4%, - 1.0%, - 11.9%, - 0.3%, and - 8.0% respectively [13]. - On May 22, Temuujin, the Executive General Manager of the Mongolian Coal Association, delivered a keynote speech on the current situation and development trend of the Mongolian coal industry at the "2025 (First) International Coking Coal Conference". Currently, more than 50 out of over 70 coal - mining enterprises with coal - mining licenses in Mongolia are engaged in mining operations [13]. - It is reported that OPEC+ is discussing whether to significantly increase production again at the meeting on June 1. The reported options under discussion include an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July, but no final agreement has been reached [13]. - Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on May 22 showed that in the 20th week of 2025 (the week ending May 17), the estimated coal production in the US increased again week - on - week, reaching a three - week high. That week, the estimated coal production in the US was 10.6316 million short tons (9.6448 million tons), an increase of 4.86% from the previous week and 25.76% from the same period last year [13][14]. - Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office showed that in March 2025, Germany's hard - coal imports were 2.0883 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.80% and a month - on - month increase of 6.09%. The cumulative imports from January to March were 6.4471 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12% [14]. 3.4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data graphs, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot aggregated price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the coke production and capacity utilization rate of steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, and the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants [15][16][17].