原木期货日报-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last Friday, the log futures market showed weak performance. After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decline, and the current FOB prices continue to drop, maintaining a weak balance in the fundamentals [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2507 closed at 775 yuan/cubic meter, down 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day with a decline of 0.32%. Log 2509 closed at 790.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.0 yuan/cubic meter with a decline of 0.13%. Log 2511 closed at 794.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.0 yuan/cubic meter with a decline of 0.13% [3] - The prices of main benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price was 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [4] 3.2 Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.199, down 0.005 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 779.25 yuan, down 0.43 yuan from the previous day [3] 3.3 Supply - Monthly port shipments in April were 200.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 39.0 million cubic meters or 24.17% compared to March [3] - Last week, the arrival volume of ships decreased by about 27.63 million cubic meters. It is expected that the arrival volume this week will increase by about 42.1 million cubic meters [4] 3.4 Inventory - Weekly inventory in major ports: China's total inventory of coniferous logs was 341 million cubic meters as of May 16, a decrease of 2 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 186.8 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.1 million cubic meters or 1.66%. In Jiangsu, the inventory was 114.35 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.5 million cubic meters or - 2.18% [4] 3.5 Demand - Weekly demand: As of May 16, the average daily log outbound volume was 6.14 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.01 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a basically flat demand [4]