瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and the weakening of the US dollar. The credit risk of the US dollar increases, and the investment demand for gold is stable. For silver, it mainly follows the upward trend of gold, and a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while short - term correction pressure should be noted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 777.3 yuan/gram, down 2.8 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8280 yuan/kilogram, up 17 yuan. - The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 216,132 lots, down 4,380 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 371,701 lots, up 16,590 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract was 120,991 lots, up 6,047 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract was 163,357 lots, up 59 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 957,380 kilograms, down 3,261 kilograms [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 776.2 yuan/gram; the spot price of silver was 8,235 yuan/kilogram, up 20 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.1 yuan/gram, up 8.7 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 45 yuan/kilogram, up 3 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The net non - commercial position of gold CFTC (weekly) was 163,981 contracts, up 2,772 contracts; the net non - commercial position of silver CTFC (weekly) was 50,042 contracts, up 2,288 contracts. - The total supply of gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver (yearly) was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. - The total demand for gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global demand for silver (yearly) was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was - 8.12%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.12%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.49%, down 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.49%, down 0.38% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for the 50% tariff on the EU to July 9. - The 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, said that although the threshold for a short - term interest rate cut is "slightly high", a rate cut is still possible in the next 10 to 16 months. - Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to intensify. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June was 94.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 5.6% [3].