瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250526

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts involve more capacity output than the recovery, leading to a slight decrease in overall production [2]. - Last week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, real - order trading volume decreased, and enterprise pending orders declined, while inland enterprise inventories continued to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, methanol port inventories increased slightly. In the East China region, the load of some downstream enterprises along the Yangtze River recovered, and other mainstream social warehouses had normal pick - up. In the South China region, the pick - up volume of mainstream warehouses was acceptable due to stable local and surrounding demand, and both imported and domestic trade supplies were replenished [2]. - The restart of ethylene plants in East China led to an increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry last week. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2224 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 0.6757 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 805,879 lots, an increase of 15,591 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 144,747 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 5,997 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. - The East - West price difference was 300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 46 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 327 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 230 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 69 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.31 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 32.7 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 16.34 tons, an increase of 0.35 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 48.54 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 47.3 tons, a decrease of 8.88 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 38,400 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 50.8%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 9.52%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 91.07%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The operating rate of olefins was 83.82%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 543 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.73%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.16%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 16.66%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.65%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of May 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.24 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 0.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.35 tons [2]. - As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.60 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 3.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 14.03% [2]. - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 83.84%, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The restart of ethylene plants in East China led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [2].