合成橡胶产业日报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some devices, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Although most enterprises' production scheduling has gradually stabilized and improved compared to last week, individual enterprises have slightly reduced production to control inventory growth. Most private butadiene rubber plants in North China have reduced their loads to varying degrees, but the downstream's wait - and - see attitude has led to continuous shipment pressure and poor overall transaction follow - up. Last week, the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased. It is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decrease in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to increase last week, but the production scheduling adjustment of individual enterprises limited the increase in overall capacity utilization, and a few enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The br2507 contract should pay short - term attention to the support around 11,500, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 52,885, a decrease of 17,086; the 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,750 tons, a decrease of 40 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 64.78 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.34 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 560.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 61.53 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.33 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.73%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 28,200 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, unchanged. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 75.57%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 615 yuan/ton, an increase of 618 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,800 tons, an increase of 600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 27,000 tons, an increase of 350 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 5,800 tons, an increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of May 22, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,800 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]