氯碱周报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1烧碱 - Short - term, concentrated maintenance limits supply pressure. Alumina has a复产预期 and new production lines support demand. Shandong mainstream factory purchase prices have increased four times, reaching 800 yuan/ton, supporting the spot price. However, non - aluminum pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction pose risks. Suggest to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and try 6 - 9 positive spreads [2]. 2.2 PVC - The recent PVC rebound is due to macro - stimulation from Sino - US tariff easing, positive exports from BIS policy extension, and supply - demand support from concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. But in the medium - long term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure due to the weak real estate market, and Indian BIS and anti - dumping taxes are potential negatives. The spot market is tepid after the rebound, and the market has a downward trend. Adopt a high - short strategy for the medium - term, with the resistance level for 09 around 5100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1烧碱 3.1.1 Price and Market Trends - The price of caustic soda has fluctuated. Factors such as macro - environment, alumina procurement price changes, and inventory levels have affected the market. For example, recent increases in alumina procurement prices have supported the spot market [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of May 22, the national weighted average caustic soda production capacity utilization rate was 86.86%, up 1.08% from last week. In Shandong, it was 89.59%, up 3.3%. Second - quarter maintenance will reduce the production capacity utilization rate, and inventory reduction supports the spot price [24]. 3.1.3 Demand - Alumina has a large number of new production capacity plans from the end of 2024 to 2025, with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of around 10% and a production growth rate of around 6% in 2025. New alumina production will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with 150,000 tons concentrated from April to June [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - The profit of the caustic soda industry is affected by factors such as raw salt prices and liquid chlorine prices. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has a negative impact on corporate profits [15]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Market Trends - The PVC price has fluctuated. Factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and policies have affected the market. For example, Sino - US tariff easing and concentrated maintenance have led to price rebounds, but the long - term oversupply pressure remains [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - In April 2025, PVC powder production was 1.9264 million tons, with a cumulative production of 7.9262 million tons from January to April, a 1.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024. As of May 22, the overall PVC powder production capacity utilization rate was 73.11%, down 0.9 percentage points. The second - quarter maintenance will reduce the production capacity utilization rate [83]. 3.2.3 Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure, and the real estate market continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are lower than the five - year average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are high [92]. 3.2.4 Inventory - PVC inventory has been decreasing, and the year - on - year pressure is limited. However, the long - term demand weakness may still affect the inventory situation [100]. 3.2.5 International Market - As of May 22, the Asian PVC market was weakly stable. Indian demand expansion theoretically benefits Chinese exports, but the long - term impact of Indian BIS and anti - dumping taxes is negative. The US tariff has affected the export of PVC products [118].