Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Consider the supply - side is gradually recovering and the demand outlook is pessimistic. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies for tin prices. Try short positions lightly in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 and focus on the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - In the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, and the weak macro - expectation limits the upside space. The price will mainly fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to whether the strong - reality fundamentals continue after May and the US economic fundamentals, with the main reference range of 78,000 - 79,000 [2]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the center of zinc prices may move down. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, focus on the zinc ore production growth rate and downstream demand marginal changes, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory depletion and tight spot supply are the core supports for the futures price. The short - term support level is expected to be around 2,900 - 3,000. If the Guinea event further intensifies, the upside space is expected to be around 3,400 - 3,500. For aluminum, the current low inventory supports the price, but there is no macro - level super - expected positive factor to push up the price, and the demand - side off - season pressure limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a sideways shock, with the operating range of 19,500 - 21,000 [7]. Stainless Steel - After the digestion of the previous macro - sentiment, the trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The ore end supports the price to some extent, the raw material ferronickel price is weakly stable, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. Expect the price to fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 [9]. Nickel - After the digestion of the macro - sentiment, the trading returns to the fundamentals. The market sentiment is temporarily stable. The ore end is relatively firm, the ferronickel price is weakly stable, and the overseas inventory remains high while the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. Expect the price to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have no obvious changes. The upstream supply is still sufficient, the demand is generally stable, and the inventory is still high, which exerts pressure on the price. Expect the price to remain weak, with the short - term main reference range of 580,000 - 630,000, and mainly focus on upstream dynamics [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price remains unchanged at 265,400, SMM 1 tin premium drops 6.67% to 700, and LME 0 - 3 premium rises 3.57% to - 135 [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - Import loss increases 4.96% to - 9,130.99, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops to 8.13 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 rises 36.84% to - 120, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 drops 32% to 170 [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - April tin ore imports rise 18.48% to 9,861, SMM refined tin production in April drops 0.52% to 15,200, and Indonesia's refined tin exports in April drop 15.79% to 4,800 [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory rises 0.33% to 8,445, and social inventory rises 3.76% to 10,333 [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price drops 0.06% to 78,035, and SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium rises 30 to 165 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 drops 430 to 0 [2]. Fundamental Data - April electrolytic copper production rises 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and April electrolytic copper imports drop 19.06% to 25 million tons [2]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rises 0.26% to 22,710, and the premium drops 5 [4]. Fundamental Data - April refined zinc production rises 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory drops 6.84% to 8.04 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rises 0.05% to 20,370, and the average price of alumina in Shandong rises 2.42% to 3,175 [7]. Fundamental Data - April alumina production drops 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and April electrolytic aluminum production drops 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [7]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,150, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rises 0.21% to 676 [9]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April rises 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) drops 5.48% to 53.10 million tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price drops 0.26% to 124,175, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rises 2.38% to 2,150 [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production rises 6.08% to 36,300, and refined nickel imports drop 68.84% to 8,164 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remains unchanged at 63,050, and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price drops 0.34% to 64,720 [13]. Fundamental Data - April lithium carbonate production drops 6.65% to 73,810, and April lithium carbonate demand rises 3.02% to 89,627 [13].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250526
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-26 11:43