广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250526

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market continues to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. The main demand, the photovoltaic industry chain, remains weak, but the organic silicon industry chain shows some signs of improvement. With expected supply growth, weak demand, declining raw material costs, and expected production increases, the fundamentals are bearish, and prices remain under pressure [1]. Polysilicon - Demand is weak, but prices have fallen to the cash - flow range of polysilicon production. The long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease, and spot prices are gradually stabilizing. The polysilicon industry's fundamentals have an expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are expected to improve, but the futures price may still be under pressure technically [2]. Natural Rubber - Supply is affected by the delayed Thai tapping season and increased rainfall disturbing the tapping work, resulting in low raw material output and high raw material prices. Demand is weak as tire factories' inventories continue to accumulate. The rubber price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, with an operating range of 14,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to sell high within the range [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Despite the potential negative impact of Lianyungang Alkali Industry's production, the current production loss due to maintenance is significant, and the market has strong maintenance expectations in June. The short - term inventory is likely to remain stable. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. It is recommended to track maintenance implementation in May - June, and consider short - term high - selling operations for far - month contracts and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The spot price has further declined this week. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor due to the upcoming summer rainy season. The glass price is expected to remain under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged from May 22. The basis of these varieties decreased, with the largest decline of - 4.55% for the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507 decreased by 50.00%, while the spreads of 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, and 2509 - 2510 increased by 25.00%, 16.67%, and 50.00% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with Xinjiang's production dropping by 20.55%. Yunnan and Sichuan's production increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and Xinjiang's开工 rates decreased, while Yunnan's decreased slightly, and Sichuan's increased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while the industrial silicon export volume increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 6.95%, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.26%, Sichuan's decreased by 0.44%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.84%. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.41%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.73% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged from May 22. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material decreased slightly [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The price of PS2506 increased by 0.03%. The spread of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 88.62%, while other spreads remained unchanged [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production increased by 7.09%, and polysilicon production increased by 0.47%. - Monthly: In April, polysilicon production decreased by 0.73%, imports decreased by 69.49%, exports decreased by 37.06%, and net exports increased by 127.44%. Silicon wafer production increased by 14.95%, imports increased by 46.90%, exports increased by 7.13%, and net exports increased by 2.64%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 14.36% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00%, silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.17% [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 0.68%, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 1.03%, and the basis of whole latex increased by 1750.00%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.50% [3]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.63%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.55%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.11% [3]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production decreased by 56.93%, Indonesia's increased by 5.92%, India's decreased by 28.38%, and China's production started from zero. The weekly tire factory operating rates decreased slightly. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 5.07%, and tire exports decreased by 7.87%. In March, natural rubber imports increased by 18.07%, and in April, imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 9.21%. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber changed slightly [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory increased by 0.73%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 38.02%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China decreased by 0.88%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 0.80% and 1.77% respectively [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.22% and 2.51% respectively [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.04%, and the weekly production decreased by 2.05%. The float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged. The price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% [5]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.82%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [5]. Real Estate Data - The new - construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [5].