摩根士丹利：中国应对人工智能资本支出波动、关税与外汇波动

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as In-Line [3] Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on cloud AI demand, supported by strong AI capital expenditure (capex) from US cloud service providers [1][3] - Concerns exist regarding semiconductor tariffs and foreign exchange (FX) impacts, but these are not expected to significantly affect the long-term profitability of TSMC, identified as the top pick [1][3] - AI semiconductor demand is projected to accelerate due to generative AI, expanding into various sectors beyond the semiconductor industry [5] Summary by Sections AI Semiconductor Outlook - The report highlights a recovery in AI semiconductor demand, with expectations for a 62% year-over-year growth in capex among the top six companies, reaching RMB 373 billion [47] - The total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI in China is anticipated to be USD 48 billion by 2027 [52] - The self-sufficiency ratio for domestic GPUs in China is expected to rise from 34% in 2024 to 82% by 2027, indicating a significant shift towards local fulfillment of AI demand [50][53] Valuation Comparisons - TSMC's current price is 979.0 TWD with a target price of 1,288.0 TWD, indicating a 32% upside potential [6] - Other notable companies include Winbond with a target price of 25.0 TWD (39% upside) and MediaTek with a target price of 1,888.0 TWD (44% upside) [5][6] - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison across various segments, including foundry, memory, and backend, with specific P/E ratios and expected EPS growth rates for 2024-2026 [6][7] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the semiconductor inventory days have declined, historically a positive indicator for stock price appreciation [5][14] - The impact of FX fluctuations on TSMC's gross margin is quantified, with a 1% appreciation in TWD against USD translating to a 40 basis points decline in gross margin [28] - The report emphasizes that while tariffs may affect short-term recovery, the long-term demand drivers remain robust due to technological diffusion and price elasticity in tech products [5][14]