美银：中美协议：五个宏观影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US-China deal on May 12 significantly reduced the effective tariff rate, leading to expectations of increased imports, which may support inventories and capital expenditures [8][15] - Stagflation risks have diminished, although inflation remains a concern, with substantial inflation anticipated in the pipeline [15][17] - The labor market is expected to remain stable, with a lower risk of imminent payroll drops due to the anticipated rebound in imports [20][21] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report anticipates solid GDP growth in 2Q 2025 at +2.0%, a revision from +0.9%, while final domestic sales are expected to be weak at -0.3% [45] - The core PCE inflation is projected to peak at 3.5% y/y in 4Q 2025, with expectations of a decline to 2.4% by the end of 2026 due to weaker aggregate demand [46] Labor Market - Job growth has stabilized, with a gradual increase in the unemployment rate expected, peaking at 4.6% in 2Q-3Q 2026 due to immigration restrictions tightening labor supply [47] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement back-loaded rate cuts, with a forecast of 100 basis points in cuts during 2H 2026 as inflation peaks and demand-driven disinflation takes precedence [48] Import Dynamics - The US-China deal is likely to lead to a surge in imports, which may alleviate concerns about inventory shortages and support capital expenditures [15][16] - There is a possibility of overflowing warehouses instead of empty shelves due to firms front-loading holiday-related imports [9][15] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The May and June inflation data are expected to reflect the impact of tariffs, with customs revenues tracking a 55% m/m increase in May [18][22] - Consumer spending may be more resilient than previously forecasted if inflation pressures are less severe than expected [19]