野村：经济展望：美国最后一份温和的通胀报告

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to reduce reciprocal tariff rates by 115 basis points, which is larger than previously expected, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [15] - Tariff-induced inflationary pressures are anticipated to increase core PCE inflation in the coming months, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, followed by additional cuts in early 2026 [15] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with risks skewed to the downside, suggesting a gradual cooling rather than a sharp deterioration [15] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to implement a 25 basis point cut in June 2025, with a prolonged trade war potentially leading to deeper cuts [15] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to cut rates to 1.50% by September to support the economy amid US tariff shocks [15] - Japan's economy is expected to remain on a recovery path, but higher US tariffs pose downside risks [15] - Asia's export and capital expenditure growth is likely to slow sharply in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs and weak global demand, with open economies being the most vulnerable [15] Summary by Sections United States - Core PCE inflation is likely to remain subdued in April, with expectations of a modest increase [24] - Durable goods orders are expected to have fallen by 7.8% month-on-month, driven by a decline in transportation equipment orders [25] - Consumer confidence is projected to improve to 91.0 in May from 86.0 in April, reflecting positive trade developments [27] Europe - Disinflation in the euro area is expected to remain on track, with HICP inflation forecasted to align with the ECB's 2% target [38][41] - German consumer confidence remains below pre-pandemic averages, but plans for increased government spending may improve sentiment [40] Asia - China's economy is projected to experience steady expansion in the first half of the year, but policy support may be ramped up in the second half to achieve growth targets [15] - In India, GDP growth is expected to rise in Q1, but leading indices indicate potential declines ahead [15] Global Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 3.3% for 2024, with developed markets at 1.7% and emerging markets at 4.5% [11] - The report highlights the potential for a deeper rate-cutting cycle in response to economic challenges across various regions [15]