野村：美元兑人民币定价模型 - 预测：7.2168

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific securities [1]. Core Insights - The model projection for USD/CNY is 7.2168, which is 265 pips higher than the previous projection of 7.1903 and 128 pips higher from the previous official spot close [1]. - The model projection with the counter-cyclical factor is 7.2048, indicating a 145 pips increase from the previous fix [1]. Summary by Sections Model Projections - The USD/CNY fix model projects a value of 7.2168, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous values [1]. - The counter-cyclical factor adjustment results in a slightly lower projection of 7.2048, still indicating an upward trend [1]. Recent Model Errors - The report includes figures illustrating recent model errors without counter-cyclical factor adjustments, which may provide insights into the accuracy of the projections [4]. Calendar of Events - Key upcoming events that may impact the industry include the FOMC meetings on June 18 and July 30, 2025, and the expiry of the 75-day delay in TikTok app actions on June 19, 2025 [9]. - The PBoC's Q2 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the end of June 2025, which could influence market conditions [9]. Analyst Contributions - The report is prepared by a team of analysts from Nomura, indicating a collaborative effort in the research process [2].