建信期货棉花日报-20250527

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,606 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 1150, and those for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 850 [7] - The atmosphere and prices in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little. Traders' inventories increased slightly, while spinners' inventories decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained dull, with slower shipments, increased inventories, and manufacturers offering volume - based discounts [7] - Macroscopically, there were many disturbances, such as Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU and G7 countries discussing imposing tariffs on Chinese small parcels. Overseas, the US market was closed due to a holiday. Domestically, new cotton planting was in good condition, with expected stable and increasing planting areas. The downstream finished - product inventories were not high, but the grey fabric market showed signs of weakness recently. The cotton market had limited changes, and range - bound operations were recommended [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending May 20, according to CFTC, the non - commercial long positions of CFTC US cotton futures funds were 62,669 (- 1906) contracts, decreasing for the third consecutive week, and the short positions were 91,825 (+ 9707) contracts, increasing for the second consecutive week. The total ICE positions were 235,995 (+ 11,252) contracts, increasing for the third consecutive week, and the net long ratio was - 12.4%, down 4.5 percentage points month - on - month and 12.3 percentage points year - on - year [9] - In Pakistan, new cotton planting had expanded, but water shortages in Sindh restricted the progress and threatened seedlings. Some observers expected the national cotton output to decline, estimating it to be between 7 million and 8 million bales [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those related to cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][20][23]