Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - PVC: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - Short - fiber: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - Polyester Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - Prices: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Supply: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - Demand: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - Inventory: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - Spot and Futures: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - Overseas Quotes and Import Profits: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - Industry Operating Rates and Profits: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - Upstream Prices: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - Industry Operating Rates: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - PE and PP Prices and Spreads: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - Non - standard Prices: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - Operating Rates and Inventories: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - Inventory: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - Operating Rates: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - Futures Prices and Spreads: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - Upstream Raw Materials: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - Supply - Demand Data: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].
《能源化工》日报-20250527
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-27 01:00