建信期货国债日报-20250527

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share market decline and loose funding led to a slight increase in treasury bond futures across the board. The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield rising 0.2bp. The central bank's net injection in the open market resulted in loose funding. Considering the marginal weakening but resilient April economic data, and the tariff disturbances entering a buffer period, the short-term fundamentals have no significant downward risk, and policies may enter an observation period with a low possibility of further intensification. The bond market has entered a narrow oscillation pattern, but with the peak of government bond supply in May passing and the central bank's continuous support, the short end may perform better [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: A-share market decline and loose funding led to a slight increase in treasury bond futures across the board. The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with fluctuations within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6910%, up 0.2bp [8][9] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds in the interbank market mostly declined slightly, with fluctuations within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6910%, up 0.2bp [9] - Funding Market: The central bank had a net injection in the open market, resulting in loose funding. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 247 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates showed mixed trends, with the weighted overnight rate of interbank deposits falling about 5bp to 1.51%, the 7-day rate falling 7bp to around 1.66%, and medium- to long-term funds remaining stable [10] - Conclusion: The April economic data showed marginal weakening but resilience. With tariff disturbances entering a buffer period, there is no significant short-term downward risk in the fundamentals. Policies may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further intensification is low. The bond market has entered a narrow oscillation pattern, but with the peak of government bond supply in May passing and the central bank's continuous support, the short end may perform better [11] 3.2 Industry News - Policy and Management: The central bank and the SAFE plan to improve the management of funds for overseas direct listings of domestic enterprises. Many provinces have proposed stricter management of special bond funds. The CFFEX will enrich the participant structure of the treasury bond futures market [12][13] - Market Trends: Most banks' large-denomination certificate of deposit rates have declined, and wealth management companies have reduced fees. The first 50-year special treasury bond was issued, and the market is focusing on supply pressure and funding [13] - International News: Trump agreed that the US does not need to bring the textile manufacturing industry back home and hopes to manufacture large items such as chips, computers, and AI in the US [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Data on trading of treasury bond futures contracts on May 26, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest, are provided [6] - Money Market: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and interbank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes is presented [28][30] - Derivatives Market: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is provided [33]