棉花早报-20250527

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral due to factors such as production, import, consumption, and inventory data. The basis shows a premium over futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, but the main position is bearish and the overall inventory is relatively high. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton's main 09 contract is expected to rebound to the previous gap area, then experience a short - term shock and decline as the upward momentum weakens and selling pressure increases [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, along with the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and European regulations restricting imports [5]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the 25/26 annual report of USDA, cotton production decreased while consumption increased, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. In April, China's textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 24/25 annual production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,606 yuan, with a basis of 1221 yuan (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures [4]. - Inventory: The estimated ending inventory in the 24/25 April report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.31 million tons [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: With the mutual tariff reduction in the China - US negotiation and a 90 - day window period, foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the upward momentum will weaken, and the market will experience a short - term shock and decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Cotton Supply and Demand: The report provides the USDA's global cotton production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data from 2020/21 to 2025/26, showing the production and consumption trends of major cotton - producing and consuming countries such as China, India, the US, etc. For example, in 2025/26, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - China's Cotton Supply and Demand: The report shows China's cotton supply and demand balance sheet from 2019 to 2024, including harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [13]. - Short - fiber and Polyester Prices: It presents the price trends of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber [21]. - Processing and Spinning Profits: It shows the daily processing profit of ginneries and the daily spot profit of spinning mills in China [26][29]. - Import Volume and Operating Rates: It includes China's monthly import volume of cotton yarn, the weekly operating rate of pure - cotton yarn mills, and the weekly operating rate of weaving mills [34][36][38]. 5. Position Data No content related to position data is provided.