沪锌期货早报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures are expected to consolidate in the short - term, with the contract ZN2507 showing a sideways movement [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, presenting a bullish signal [2]. - The basis of spot zinc was +445 (spot price 22,630), indicating a bullish situation [2]. - On May 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 tons to 153,500 tons. On May 26, SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 1,774 tons, showing a neutral stance [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a sideways movement, closing below the 20 - day moving average which was trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players was short, with short positions decreasing, also indicating a bearish outlook [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On May 26, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 220,925 lots, with a total turnover of 24.5308783 billion yuan. The open interest was 228,230 lots, an increase of 980 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On May 26, in the domestic main spot markets, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Shanghai was 22,630 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3,979 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4,373 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,120 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,490 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,831 yuan/ton, up 231 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From April 30 to May 26, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets decreased from 632,000 tons to 685,000 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 31,000 tons, and compared with the previous Monday, it decreased by 72,000 tons [5]. - On May 26, the total SHFE zinc warrants were 1,774 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On May 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 tons to 153,500 tons, with registered warrants of 80,175 tons and cancelled warrants of 73,325 tons, accounting for 47.77% [8]. Production Statistics - In April 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%. The planned production for May was 444,100 tons [15]. Processing Fee Quotes - On May 26, zinc concentrate processing fees in various regions remained stable, with the average price in different regions ranging from 3,300 to 3,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 40 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - On May 26, for the zinc futures contract zn2507, the top three futures companies in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (46,687 lots, an increase of 11,174 lots), Guotai Junan (37,673 lots, an increase of 4,115 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (28,757 lots, an increase of 3,608 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (12,541 lots, an increase of 624 lots), Guotai Junan (8,651 lots, an increase of 27 lots), and Jianxin Futures (5,522 lots, a decrease of 28 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were Guotai Junan (9,705 lots, an increase of 710 lots), Yong'an Futures (9,098 lots, a decrease of 230 lots), and CITIC Futures (8,925 lots, an increase of 21 lots) [18].