沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250527

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍2507: Expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner [3] - 不锈钢2507: Expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 沪镍 Daily View - Fundamentals: Overseas markets were closed yesterday, and the domestic market moved sideways. The ore price quotation remains firm, but iron mills downstream are still in the red, with some loosening in ore prices and a possible downward shift in the cost line. Stainless steel warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the pressure of spot supply remains high. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, and the battery trend towards (6 nickel) is beneficial for increasing nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - Basis: The spot price is 124,150, and the basis is 1,370, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: LME inventory stands at 198,636 (unchanged due to market closure), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 22,250, a decrease of 168, suggesting a bearish signal [4] - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4] Stainless Steel Daily View - Fundamentals: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. There is an expectation of a short - term correction in nickel ore prices, and the cost line may loosen. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stopping its decline. Warehouse receipts from the stainless steel exchange continue to flow into the spot market. Overall, it is neutral [6] - Basis: The average price of stainless steel is 13,812.5, and the basis is 937.5, indicating a bullish signal [6] - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 139,121, a decrease of 1,304, suggesting a bearish signal [6] - Market: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, indicating a bullish signal [6] 多空因素 (Influencing Factors Summary) - Positive Factors: The data of new energy vehicles continue to perform well, with year - on - year increases in production and sales in April [8] - Negative Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, increasing the supply pressure [8] 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 (Price Overview of Nickel and Stainless Steel) - Futures Prices: On May 26, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,780, up 170 from May 23; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,875, unchanged from May 23. The London nickel price remained unchanged at 15,570 due to market closure [13] - Spot Prices: On May 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 124,150, down 25 from May 23; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained unchanged in major markets [13] 镍仓单、库存 (Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory) - As of May 23: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,955 tons, with the futures inventory at 22,418 tons, a decrease of 787 tons and 1,083 tons respectively compared to before [15] - As of May 26: LME inventory was 198,636 (unchanged), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 22,250, a decrease of 168. The total inventory was 220,886, a decrease of 168 [16] 不锈钢仓单、库存 (Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory) - As of May 23: Wuxi inventory was 59.01 tons, Foshan inventory was 374,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,117,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons. The inventory of the 300 series was 693,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,500 tons [21] - As of May 26: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 139,121, a decrease of 1,304 [22] 镍矿、镍铁价格 (Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices) - Nickel Ore: On May 26, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58.5 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 31 dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from May 23 [24] - Nickel Iron: On May 26, the price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 951 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,450 yuan per ton, both unchanged from May 23 [24] 不锈钢生产成本 (Stainless Steel Production Cost) - The traditional production cost was 13,250, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,758, and the production cost using low - nickel + pure nickel was 16,826 [26] 镍进口成本测算 (Nickel Import Cost Estimation) The estimated import price was converted to 126,649 yuan per ton [29]