大越期货纯碱早报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from a high level, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1254 yuan/ton, and the basis is 46 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Likely to be Bullish: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - Likely to be Bearish: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1254 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 46 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.08% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has decreased by 2.13% [5]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - Production Profit: The profit of the joint - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - Operating Rate and Production Volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 36 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production - launching of 60 tons [22]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 54.23% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 84.40 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash are presented in the table, showing different trends in different years [34].