大越期货尿素早报-20250527

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a neutral state overall. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today. The high daily production and new device commissioning on the supply side, along with marginal changes in demand, are the main logics. The change in export policy is the main risk point [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: After a recent rebound, the urea futures price has oscillated and declined. The operating rate and daily production remain at a high level, with new devices being commissioned recently, and the inventory is fluctuating in the short term. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, while that of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is weak in the short term. The international urea price is strong, and the export profit is high but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was announced on May 15 - 16, the price lacks upward momentum. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 23, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.05 million tons (+10), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract price oscillates and declines. With high daily production and short - term inventory decline, agricultural demand is gradually improving. After the export policy is announced, the price tends to be stable. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other data have also changed accordingly. The import dependence of PP has generally shown a downward trend. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Market Data - Spot Market: The price of the spot delivery product is 1850, the Shandong spot price is 1860, the Henan spot price is 1850, and the FOB China price is 2587 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the UR09 contract is 1827, the basis is 23, and the prices of UR01 and UR05 are 1753 and 1762 respectively [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 7548, the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.05 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 917,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 133,000 tons [6].