大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the long - term negotiation results remain uncertain. The prices of crude oil and coal are weak, weakening the cost - side support. For LLDPE, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and there is still pressure from new capacity. For PP, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs and performs generally. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In April, the official PMI was 49%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from March, both at recent lows. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7440 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 355, and the premium - discount ratio is 5.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (unchanged), showing a neutral situation [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, the industrial chain inventory is neutral, and there is still pressure from new capacity [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and short - term tariff relaxation; bearish factors include new capacity release and weak crude oil prices [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In April, the official PMI was 49%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from March, both at recent lows. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7300 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 352, and the premium - discount ratio is 5.1%, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (unchanged), showing a neutral situation [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract has turned short, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, the industrial chain inventory is neutral [7]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and short - term tariff relaxation; bearish factors include weak crude oil prices [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].