建信期货铁矿石日评-20250527

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - On May 26, the iron ore futures main 2509 contract fluctuated downward. Fundamentally, the supply side shows tightening in the short - term but ample long - term supply. The demand has peaked, and although the inventory decline supports the price to some extent, the iron ore demand may weaken in the later period, and the price faces pressure [7][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1 Market Review - On May 26, the iron ore futures main 2509 contract opened lower, fluctuated downward, and then oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 706.5 yuan/ton, down 2.21%. The main steel and iron ore futures contracts generally declined. For example, RB2510 fell 1.67%, HC2510 fell 2.03%, SS2507 fell 0.04%, and I2509 fell 2.21% [7][5]. - In the spot market, on May 26, the main iron ore overseas quotes dropped 1.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline after yesterday's dead - cross, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 7 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline, with marginal tightening of overall supply. However, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil continued to rise, and as it is approaching the shipment rush period in June, the long - term supply of iron ore is still ample [10]. - Demand: Last week, the daily average hot metal output continued to decline slightly to 243.6 million tons. The output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the apparent demand declined. Overall, the iron ore demand has shown a peaking trend [10]. - Inventory: The available days of steel mill inventory decreased by 2 days to 20 days, and the port inventory continued to decline, falling below 140 million tons, reaching a new low since mid - March 2024. The marginal decline in inventory supports the iron ore price to some extent [11]. - Overall: With the hot metal output peaking and the rainy season approaching, the iron ore demand may gradually weaken in the later period, and the price faces pressure. It is advisable to try selling hedging or investment strategies, and spot traders can also try the accumulated put option strategy to increase profits [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On May 25, Trump commented on Nippon Steel's acquisition plan of US Steel, saying it was an investment and US Steel would still be under US control [12]. - On May 22, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. held its Fourth Non - oriented Silicon Steel Application Technology Conference in Chengdu, globally launching 4 new high - performance non - oriented silicon steel products, including one with extremely low iron loss and high magnetic induction, which can be widely used in humanoid robots and low - altitude aircraft [12]. - On May 23, Trump proposed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, 2025. On May 25, he agreed to the EU's request to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9 [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to iron ore, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spreads between different grades of ore, the basis between spot and futures, the shipment and arrival volumes, the utilization rate of domestic mines, the port inventory and shipping volume, the steel mill inventory and cost, the furnace operating rate and production capacity utilization rate, the hot metal output, and the steel product consumption and production [15][21][25].