建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250527

Group 1: Report Information - Date: May 27, 2025 [1] - Industry: Polyolefins [1] Group 2: Research Team - Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins) [2] - Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil) [2] - Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG) [2] - Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon) [2] - Liu Youran (Pulp) [2] - Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7001 yuan/ton, closed at 7019 yuan/ton, highest 7057 yuan/ton, lowest 6994 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51%), with a position of 93379 and an increase of 3501 [3] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7000 yuan/ton, closed at 7008 yuan/ton, highest 7050 yuan/ton, lowest 6995 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (-0.69%), with a position of 247 and an increase of 42 [3] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7070 yuan/ton, closed at 7080 yuan/ton, highest 7118 yuan/ton, lowest 7055 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%), with a position of 513654 and a decrease of 2282 [3] - PP2601: Opened at 6908 yuan/ton, closed at 6885 yuan/ton, highest 6926 yuan/ton, lowest 6869 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.52%), with a position of 64751 and an increase of 4340 [3] - PP2605: Opened at 6900 yuan/ton, closed at 6899 yuan/ton, highest 6955 yuan/ton, lowest 6890 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (-0.49%), with a position of 307 and an increase of 171 [3] - PP2509: Opened at 6945 yuan/ton, closed at 6929 yuan/ton, highest 6979 yuan/ton, lowest 6915 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.69%), with a position of 492604 and an increase of 20629 [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7080 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%), with a trading volume of 33 lots and a position decrease of 2282 to 513654 lots [4] - PP main contract 09 closed at 6929 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan (-0.69%), with a position increase of 20600 lots to 492600 lots [4] - Supply side: Maintenance losses decreased month-on-month. As previously shut-down units restarted, supply pressure resumed, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in June [4] - Demand side: Downstream factories' inventory replenishment enthusiasm is average. The operating levels of some industries are basically flat, and new orders are scarce [4] - Market outlook: Tariff easing drove the futures price to rebound slightly, but supply pressure and lack of new orders in the off-season suppressed the market. Polyolefins are expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term due to the supply-demand imbalance [4] Group 5: Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the inventory of major producers was 840,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons (5.66%) from the previous working day, compared with 890,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - Domestic PP market declined slightly. Morning PP futures pressured market trading. Some regional enterprises lowered their factory prices, and the cost support weakened. Traders offered discounts to promote sales. Downstream terminals' willingness to enter the market was limited, and the morning inquiry atmosphere was weak. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, East China was 7030 - 7200 yuan/ton, and South China was 7110 - 7300 yuan/ton [5] - PE market prices declined slightly. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 90 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some linear and high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 80 yuan/ton, and some high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE price in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton [5] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate [7][11][14] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [8][10][12]