大越期货粕类每周策略：弱现实强预期，粕类偏强震荡-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and the meal products are in a relatively strong oscillation [1]. - In the short - term, the meal products will return to oscillation, and in the medium - term, they will oscillate with an upward tendency [3][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sino - US Tariff Negotiation Settled in the Short - Term - The Sino - US tariff war has returned to the previous state. On March 3, 2025, the US raised additional tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%, and China imposed additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods starting from March 10, 2025. After the agreement, the US tariff on China is 30%, and China's tariff on the US is 10% for all and 20% - 25% for some [8][9]. - The US has negotiated with other countries first. It completed negotiations with the UK first, imposed a 25% tariff on key Japanese auto parts on May 3, and extended the tariff negotiation deadline with the EU to July 9 [10]. - There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff negotiation after 90 days [8]. 3.2 Analysis of the Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Meal Products 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybeans' Concentrated Arrival Pressures the Market - The peak of imported soybeans' arrival is postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean processing volume of oil mills has rebounded to a high level, and the soybean inventory of oil mills continues to rise while the soybean meal inventory remains low [13][14][18]. - The production of soybean meal in April decreased year - on - year. The futures of soybean meal oscillated strongly, while the spot was relatively weak after May Day, changing from premium to discount. The downstream procurement in China has rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remains good [14][16][20]. 3.2.2 Whether the Domestic Demand for Soybean Meal Can Be Stable - The prices of live pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly. The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The domestic pig - raising profit fluctuated slightly [22][24][26]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Meal Enters a Pattern of Strong Supply and Demand - The expected import of rapeseed is increasing, and domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. The demand for aquatic products is being released intensively [28]. - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has rebounded to a relatively high level, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [29][31][33]. 3.3 Short - Term Return to Oscillation, Medium - Term Oscillation with an Upward Tendency - With the short - term settlement of the Sino - US tariff negotiation, soybeans will return to oscillation in the short - term, waiting for new guidance. Imported soybeans will arrive in a concentrated manner, and oil mills' soybean meal will enter an inventory accumulation cycle in June [35]. - The future key variables include the planting area and weather speculation of new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation, and the change in domestic demand [35]. - The bullish factors are the weather speculation of new - season US soybeans and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The bearish factors are the concentrated clearance and arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current pressure on the soybean meal spot in the off - season of demand [37]. - The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased by 3.6%, basically in line with expectations, and the planting of new - season US soybeans has started smoothly, but there are many uncertainties in the future [41].