大越期货菜粕早报-20250527

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for a return to range - bound trading [9]. - The spot market for rapeseed meal is in a situation where supply is tight and demand is rising as domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, and geopolitical conflicts still support commodity prices [11]. - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still rise and support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors are the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 2.35 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67% [9]. - The spot price is 2520, with a basis of - 46, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has been narrowing at high levels, and the price difference for the 2509 contract has been oscillating [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has been oscillating strongly [25]. - The rapeseed inventory at oil mills has continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills has rebounded to a relatively high level [29]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [37]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. Short - term factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory and China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes have caused prices to rise and then fall, and the soybean meal trend has also influenced the price to return to range - bound trading [9].