大越期货豆粕早报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US soybean futures market was closed for Memorial Day. The short - term trend of US soybeans is a strong - side oscillation, waiting for further guidance from the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybean meal oscillated and closed higher, driven by US soybeans and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in May and the decline in spot prices limited the rebound space. The short - term trend will return to the range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for soybean meal M2509 is between 2920 and 2980 [8]. - Domestic soybeans oscillated and declined, affected by US soybeans and the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. However, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. The short - term trend is affected by the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The expected trading range for soybean A2507 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt Not provided in the given content. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the US soybean futures market hit a high. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. In the short term, the soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the short - term trend of soybean meal entered an oscillatory and weakening pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further guidance on the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Bean - Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From May 15th to May 26th, the transaction price and volume of soybean meal and bean - rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and bean - rapeseed meal decreased from 651 on May 15th to 494 on May 26th [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From May 16th to May 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. For example, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased from 2920 on May 16th to 2870 on May 26th [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From May 14th to May 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31786 on May 14th to 27483 on May 26th [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of global and domestic soybeans. For example, the global soybean output increased from 316137 thousand tons in 2015 to 422262 thousand tons in 2024 [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is presented. For example, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season reached 98.5% on January 5th [33][34][38]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed in [10].