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小鹏汽车-W:小鹏汽车2025Q1财务数据点评:新车周期加持,毛利率稳步向上-20250527
09868XPENG(09868) 国联证券·2025-05-27 07:20

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with a net loss of 660 million yuan, significantly narrowing the loss compared to previous quarters. The company expects vehicle sales to reach 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 139.2%, 61.7%, and 24.6% [4][14]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company delivered 94,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 330.8%, with automotive business revenue of 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 153,000 yuan. The company anticipates Q2 2025 deliveries between 102,000 and 108,000 vehicles, leading to total revenue of 17.5 to 18.7 billion yuan [12][14]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The automotive sales gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [13][14]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, 5.99 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.42 billion yuan in 2027. The introduction of high-quality models is anticipated to drive a turning point in sales, while advancements in intelligent driving technology are expected to support a financial turnaround [14][15]. Market Expansion - The company has expanded its sales network to 690 stores across 223 cities and operates 2,115 self-owned charging stations. The upcoming launch of the Mona M03 Max is expected to penetrate the 150,000 yuan price segment, and the company has received over 1,500 pre-orders for the 2025 model X9 in various Asia-Pacific regions [13][14].