瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract decreased with increasing positions. The macro situation involves efforts in Europe and the US to avoid an escalation of the situation, and Germany hopes to avoid a tariff war. The supply - demand situation shows that the weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased by 63,000 tons for the second consecutive week, the capacity utilization rate fell below 80%, both factory and social inventories decreased, and the apparent demand decreased by 164,700 tons. On the raw material side, the second round of coke price cuts weakened cost support. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, but the black sector is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in the long - term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to trade with a bearish bias in a volatile market and pay attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,513,825 hands, up 42,818 hands; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 121,272 hands, up 37,309 hands; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 9 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 167,722 tons, down 13,109 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 131 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 109 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 736 yuan/wet ton, down 13 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 139.8783 million tons, down 1.7826 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 733,000 tons, up 80,500 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills is 6.609 million tons, down 26,200 tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 693,000 tons, down 52,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.67%, down 0.46 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil production of sample steel mills is 3.0568 million tons, down 63,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils is 78.09%, down 1.60 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory of sample steel mills is 769,200 tons, down 13,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.6327 million tons, down 60,800 tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8.602 million tons, down 682,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 994,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6188 million vehicles, down 387,100 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 2.5896 million vehicles, down 325,900 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 30.833 million units, down 2.8789 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 8.179 million units, down 1.2045 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 9.651 million units. In April, global new ship orders totaled 111 ships, 4.532855 million CGT, with Chinese shipyards receiving 55 ships, 2.601584 million CGT, accounting for 57.39% of the total [2] Industry News - On May 26, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a second - round price cut for coke, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at zero o'clock on May 28 [2]