瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250527

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.5 - 1.05bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 0.50 and 0.45bp to 1.70% and 1.91% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly down by 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.11%, and 0.26% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to around 1.62%. [2] - Domestically, economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade friction. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. Exports rebounded unexpectedly due to the export - rush effect under the expectation of tariff friction escalation, and there was a continuous increase in the expectation of fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit applicants declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and with the recent wavering of US - EU tariff policies, the market was still worried about US inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut might be postponed to July. [2] - In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations for a long - term bull market in bonds, but in the short term, due to the phased results of China - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of the benefits of interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, market risk - aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the bond market weakened in a volatile manner. Given the significant differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in long - term bonds due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.735 (-0.11%), 106.030 (-0.03%), 102.408 (-0.02%), and 119.460 (-0.26%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 6265 (up), - 4465 (down), 901 (up), and 3614 (up) respectively. [2] - Futures Spreads: All spreads between different contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL showed a downward trend in the change of the spread value, while the spreads between different - maturity contracts such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. showed an upward trend. [2] - Futures Positions: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of T, TS, and TL showed an upward or downward trend, while the net short position of TF decreased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed an upward or downward trend, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0775) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0001). [2] - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1 - year and 7 - year active treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 3 - year bonds decreased, and the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds remained unchanged. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 1.44bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 5.40bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 8.83bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 1.90bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 4.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 2.10bp. [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 448 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 357 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The Chinese Ministry of Finance believed that this was a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics", which proposed measures such as improving the enterprise income distribution system and promoting long - term incentives for listed companies. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On May 28 at 22:00, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May will be released. - On May 29 at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. - On May 29 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 will be announced. [3]