野村东方国际-中国咖啡图鉴 - 瑞幸“价格向上”，星巴克“下沉求破圈”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the coffee industry, particularly highlighting the competitive advantages of Luckin Coffee over Starbucks in the Chinese market [1][2]. Core Insights - Luckin Coffee has rapidly expanded with a total revenue of 13 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year growth of 67%, and has achieved its first annual profit with over 20,000 stores [1][4]. - Starbucks faces challenges such as a lagging pricing strategy and slow product iteration, leading to a decline in same-store sales [5][6]. - The potential of the lower-tier market is significant, with Luckin and other brands successfully penetrating this segment, while Starbucks is slower to adapt [7][8]. - The overall coffee consumer base in China has reached approximately 400 million, with a compound annual growth rate of about 6% from 2017 to 2023 [11][12]. Summary by Sections Market Competition - The coffee market in China is highly competitive, with Luckin Coffee and Starbucks adopting different strategies; Luckin focuses on high cost-performance and frequent innovation, while Starbucks struggles with pricing and product updates [2][19]. - The competition has shifted from price wars to platform-based ecological competition, with brands like Luckin and Mixue Ice City expanding their product lines [3][19]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable trend towards high-frequency consumption among younger consumers, with daily coffee consumption increasing from one cup to one to two cups [10][21]. - The demand for coffee is evolving, with a shift from traditional flavors to innovative combinations, indicating a bright future for the industry [20][21]. Market Expansion - The coffee industry is seeing a significant increase in store openings in lower-tier cities, which are becoming crucial growth markets due to rising education levels and disposable income [14][15]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of coffee consumption remains low, particularly in lower-tier cities, presenting opportunities for brands that can effectively cater to this demographic [11][14]. Brand Strategies - Luckin Coffee's strategy includes launching a new limited product every 45 days and expanding into new categories like light milk tea, achieving a full-day consumption model [6][4]. - Starbucks is attempting to enhance its private traffic operations and expand into lower-tier cities, but the effectiveness of these measures has been limited [5][7]. Future Outlook - The coffee industry is expected to transition from price sensitivity to value sensitivity, with a growing demand for diverse and innovative products [20][21]. - Brands with strong supply chains, such as Luckin and Mixue, are well-positioned to capitalize on the structural opportunities in the low-price market [18][22].