《特殊商品》日报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Spot prices have been falling, and the futures price of SI2507 has decreased. The supply side is expected to increase, while the main demand from the photovoltaic industry chain remains weak, though the organic silicon industry chain shows some signs of improvement. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish, and prices are under pressure [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are gradually stabilizing, and futures prices have also shown signs of stabilization. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation if there is no further production cut. Some enterprises are restarting production or replacing capacity. The 06 contract price is relatively firm due to controllable warehouse receipt pressure. Technically, the futures price has rebounded, and it is advisable to try long positions while paying attention to production volume [2]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asian production areas is affected by heavy rainfall, but there is an expectation of increased supply after the rainy season, which may lead to raw material pressure. On the demand side, tire enterprise开工 rates are in a recovery state, but tire factory inventories are accumulating again, especially for semi - steel tires. Due to the low warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber, the rubber sector has rebounded, but weak demand expectations and the expectation of increased raw material supply during the peak production period suggest that rubber prices are likely to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to the performance around the 14,000 level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Although there was a negative impact from the planned production of Lianyungang Alkali Industry last week, it will take time to produce products, and recent maintenance has led to a significant decline in production. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance in June, so the downward trend in the futures market has slowed. In the short term, inventory is likely to remain stable. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance ends. It is advisable to track the implementation of maintenance in May - June. For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds in the far - month contracts, and for spread trading, consider a 7 - 9 positive spread [4]. - Glass: The spot market for glass is performing poorly, and market sentiment is pessimistic. This week, spot prices have weakened further, and the sales rate of manufacturers has been affected by the selling of futures - cash merchants during the futures price decline. Although the demand from downstream deep - processing factories has improved seasonally from April to May, market expectations are poor due to the expected summer rainy season starting in June. The current fundamentals have marginally improved, but expectations and sentiment are neutral to weak. It is expected that glass prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at the 1000 level for the 09 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with declines of 1.16%, 1.60%, and 1.24% respectively. The basis for these varieties all increased, with increases ranging from 21.93% to 29.93% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 contracts showed different changes on May 27 compared to May 26, with changes ranging from - 66.67% to 16.67% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April 2025, national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 million tons to 30.08 million tons, a decline of 12.10%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 20.55%, while Yunnan and Sichuan's production increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and regional开工 rates also showed corresponding changes. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while industrial silicon exports increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - From the previous period, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 6.95%, Yunnan's increased by 1.26%, and Sichuan's decreased by 0.44%. Social inventory decreased by 2.84%, warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.44%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 5.67% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. However, the basis for N - type material and cauliflower material decreased by 25.08% and 5.69% respectively [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The PS2506 futures price increased by 1.16% on May 27 compared to May 26. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 30.43% to 32.86% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 7.09% to 13.30 GM, and polysilicon production increased by 0.47% to 2.15 million tons. In April, polysilicon production decreased by 0.73%, imports decreased by 69.49%, exports decreased by 37.06%, and net exports increased by 127.44%. Silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all increased, and silicon wafer demand increased by 14.36% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00% to 26.00 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52% to 18.95 GW. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470 [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the price of South China state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 0.70%, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.35%. The basis for whole - milk rubber increased by 5.00%. The prices of some raw materials such as cup rubber decreased, while others remained unchanged [3]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.63%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 44.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.95% on May 27 compared to May 26 [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased slightly. Domestic tire production and tire export volume decreased in April. The import volume of natural rubber in March and April also decreased. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber showed different changes [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.73%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 38.02%. The入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in Qingdao showed various changes [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 28, the spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 0.27%, and the 2509 contract price increased by 1.18%. The 05 basis increased by 6.00% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of soda ash in East China decreased by 3.45%, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 1.55%, and the 2509 contract price decreased by 1.79%. The 05 basis increased by 9.43% [4]. Supply - The soda ash开工 rate decreased by 2.04%, and the weekly production decreased by 2.05%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.82%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [4]. Real Estate Data (Monthly) - In April, the year - on - year change in new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [4].