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建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250528
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-28 01:57

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak market trends of coke and coking coal futures continue, and there may still be new lows in the next two weeks. However, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a bottom - rebounding turning point can occur in about the next two weeks due to changes in tariff policies and the restoration of confidence in the steel market [11][12]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Performance on May 27: The main contract 2509 of coke futures narrowed its decline after reaching a low, and the main contract 2509 of coking coal futures first declined and then rose, hitting new lows for September contracts since January 2017 and September 2016 respectively [7]. - Spot Market and Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of the coke 2509 contract continued to diverge, with the J - value rising, the K - value turning up, and the D - value falling, showing a potential golden cross. For the coking coal 2509 contract, the J - and K - values continued to rise, and the D - value continued to fall, approaching a golden cross. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2509 contract continued to slightly expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract began to narrow. On the same day, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke remained unchanged in major ports, and the aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some areas decreased [10]. - Future Outlook for Coke: In the past five weeks, the coke output of independent coking plants has hovered near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke output of steel mills has slightly declined since late April. Port coke inventories have significantly decreased, but the inventory reduction speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding downward pressure on coke prices. After two weeks of profit, the profit per ton of coke turned into a loss [11]. - Future Outlook for Coking Coal: From January to April, the year - on - year growth of coking coal imports turned negative, but the absolute import volume remained high, and the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants increased significantly, and the clean coal inventory rose again to a relatively high level. In the past five weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants decreased significantly, and port inventories returned to normal levels before early August last year, but steel mill inventories increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt inventory reduction strategies, coking coal prices are likely to fall [11]. - News Impact: The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal and issue the central budget investment plan for urban renewal in 2025 by the end of June. The rising US Treasury bond auction interest rate led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, reducing the risk appetite in the international financial market [11]. 3.2 Industry News - Industrial Profits: From January to April 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The mining industry's profit was 287.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 1.55493 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; and the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry's profit was 274.58 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% [13]. - Environmental Protection Inspection: On May 26, the fourth batch of the third - round central environmental protection inspections was launched, covering five provinces (regions) and three central enterprises [13]. - Ningxia's Industrial Data: From January to April, Ningxia's industrial coal production decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, while sales increased by 3.8%. Industrial power generation increased by 5.6%, with renewable energy power generation growing by 21.3% [14]. - Ningxia's Energy Plan: Ningxia plans to increase fossil energy supply, develop new energy, and promote energy storage construction. It also aims to achieve energy - saving and carbon - reduction goals in key industries by the end of 2025 [14]. - Corporate Strategies: Shanxi Coking Coal will implement a "three - matching" production strategy, and Chongqing Iron and Steel terminated the absorption and merger of Xingang Changlong [14][15]. - Automobile Sales: In April 2025, global automobile sales reached 7.56 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to April, sales were 30.26 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China accounted for 33% of global sales from January to April [15]. - Coal Market Research: From January to April 2025, the coal market showed a marginal slowdown in supply growth and stronger non - power demand than power demand. It is expected that the coal price may recover in the summer [15]. - International News: South Africa plans to import liquefied natural gas from the US, and the European Central Bank President called for reforms to reduce Europe's impact from international order changes [15]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple charts showing data on the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, production and utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, iron water production, inventory levels of coke and coking coal, and basis differences [16][17][19][30][34][35].