大越期货玻璃早报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term [2]. - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1031 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.18%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass is 1080 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The main basis is 49 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 24.62% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1080 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [16]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [20][22]. Fundamentals - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.769 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continued to decline to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. Main Logic - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level [5].