大越期货纯碱早报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from its high level, and the terminal demand has limited improvement. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. Short - term, soda ash is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Fundamentals: Alkali plant overhauls are gradually resuming. Supply has declined from its high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the terminal demand is average. The soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high. This is a bearish factor [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,290 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,231 yuan/ton, and the basis is 59 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is a bearish factor [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply - demand situation, soda ash is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, which boosts the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. Also, the cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,254 | 1,300 | 46 | | Current Value | 1,231 | 1,290 | 59 | | Change Rate | - 1.83% | - 0.77% | 28.26% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Production Profit: The profit of the combined ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production Volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 million tons, of which heavy soda ash is 36 million tons, and the production has declined from its historical high [19][21]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons. In 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 600 million tons [23]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly heavy - quality production rate of soda ash is 54.23% [25]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 million tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [28]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 million tons, and the production has stabilized [31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 million tons, of which heavy soda ash is 84.40 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the situation of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand from 2017 to 2024E [35].