棉花早报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts. There is a 90 - day window period, during which foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou Cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the selling pressure above increases, and the upward momentum weakens. It will maintain a sideways consolidation in the range of 13200 - 13500 in the short term [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a 90 - day foreign - trade export order - grabbing period, along with the futures price approaching historical lows. Negatives are the overall decline in foreign - trade orders, increased inventory, and the EU's new restrictive legislation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts. The USDA May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with unchanged ending inventory. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. China's cotton imports in April were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The rural department's April forecast for the 24/25 season is a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons. It is neutral [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,595, and the basis is 1265 (for the 09 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's April forecast for ending inventory in the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: With the mutual tariff cuts in the Sino - US negotiation and a 90 - day window period, foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou Cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the selling pressure above increases, and the upward momentum weakens. It will maintain a sideways consolidation in the range of 13200 - 13500 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA): The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Imports are expected to be 9.759 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Ending inventory is expected to be 17.065 million tons, with little change year - on - year [10][11]. - Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance: In the 24/25 season (April estimate), production is 5.62 million tons, imports are 3.25 million tons, consumption is 7.69 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.28 million tons. In the 25/26 season (May forecast), production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.53 million tons [18]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [4].