大越期货菜粕早报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2560 - 2620. It is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, increased import of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The price is likely to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Likely to be Bearish: Increased arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From May 16th to May 27th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 628 to 463. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased from 2470 to 2540, and the futures price of the main 2509 contract increased from 2513 to 2599. The spot price of rapeseed meal remained at a discount to the futures price, and the high - level spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot prices narrowed. The spread of the 2509 contract oscillated [13][14][20]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,278 on May 15th to 28,438 on May 27th [9][15]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [23][24]. - Import and Cost: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly [25]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices increased slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [37]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the soybean meal trend and technical buying. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory supported the market. Spot demand recovered in the short term, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills was under no pressure. The market returned to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes were bullish, but the impact was limited as there were no additional tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - Basis: The spot price was 2540, and the basis was - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory decreased, which was bullish [9]. - Market: The price was above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - Main Positions: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in, which was bullish [9]. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price returned to range - bound trading [9].