大越期货豆粕早报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The U.S. soybeans are fluctuating narrowly, oscillating strongly above the 1000-point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas. Domestic soybean meal has rebounded with fluctuations, driven by U.S. soybeans and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in imported soybeans arriving in May and the decline in spot prices limit the rebound space. The increase in imported Brazilian soybeans arriving and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations interact, causing it to return to a range-bound pattern in the short term [8]. - Domestic soybeans are oscillating downward, affected by the increase in imported soybeans arriving and the expected increase in production of new-season domestic soybeans. However, the cost-effectiveness advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction between the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans arriving [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - The Sino-US tariff negotiation reached a short-term agreement, which is beneficial for U.S. soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas recently led to a short-term decline after the U.S. soybean futures market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000-point mark, awaiting further guidance on U.S. soybean planting, imported soybeans arriving, and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. In the short term, the soybean products returned to an oscillating pattern due to the outcome of the Sino-US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig farming profits led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post-festival price expectation. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the Sino-US tariff war, soybean meal entered a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supported the short-term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino-US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the final South American soybean yield and the subsequent Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely to Rise: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans arriving; low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; uncertainties in the weather of the U.S. soybean-producing areas [13]. - Likely to Fall: The total volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues [13]. Soybeans - Likely to Rise: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - Likely to Fall: The expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest continues, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in production of new-season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybean products [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal Transaction Data: From May 16th to May 27th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3000 - 3098 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.69 - 88.95 tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2420 - 2540 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, mostly below 0.22 tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From May 19th to May 27th, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybeans in Jiamusi remained at 4180 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2860 - 2890 yuan/ton [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From May 15th to May 27th, the soybean warehouse receipts showed a downward trend, while the soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly on May 23rd and continued to decline thereafter [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show that the total supply and demand of soybeans are generally increasing, and the inventory consumption ratio fluctuates within a certain range [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including the sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod-setting rate, leaf-falling rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply and demand reports from November 2024 to May 2025 show changes in the harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending stocks, exports, and crushing volume of soybeans in the United States, as well as the production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina [41]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in soybean meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8].