大越期货原油早报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight crude oil continued to fluctuate. OPEC+ may continue to increase crude oil production in July, which will suppress the market. However, Trump's threat to Russia provides geopolitical support for oil prices. The easing of relations with the EU also restores confidence in the financial market. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate in the 450 - 460 range in the short term and hold long - term long positions lightly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot premium over the futures is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk is bearish; the main positions are bullish. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with a recommended short - term operating range of 450 - 460 and long - term long positions held lightly [6]. 2. Recent News - The UAE Energy Minister said OPEC+ is working to balance the oil market but needs to be vigilant about demand growth challenges. The alliance will hold meetings to decide on the July production increase policy. The Iran nuclear negotiation has made breakthrough progress, and the market expects Iranian crude oil production to impact the market after sanctions are lifted. - Trump criticized Putin for refusing a cease - fire negotiation, and his frustration with Russia increased. - Trump said his threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU was successful, and the EU - US trade situation has eased [7]. 3. Long - Short Focus - Likely to Rise: The US threatens sanctions on Iran; Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks; there are signs of easing in the trade war. - Likely to Fall: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; OPEC+ continues to increase production. - Market Drivers: The resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid supply increases. - Risk Points: The breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity; the escalation of war risks [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude decreased by 0.55 to 63.57 (a decrease of 0.86%); WTI crude decreased by 0.59 to 60.89 (a decrease of 0.96%); SC crude increased by 1.00 to 457.4 (an increase of 0.22%); Oman crude increased by 0.55 to 63.81 (an increase of 0.87%) [9]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc. have changed, with different increases and decreases [10]. - Inventory Data: API inventory increased by 249.9 million barrels in the week ending May 16, contrary to the expected decrease. EIA inventory increased by 132.8 million barrels in the same period, also contrary to the expected decrease. Cushing area inventory decreased by 45.7 million barrels in the week ending May 16. As of May 27, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [6]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Fund Net Long Positions: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [18]. - Brent Crude Fund Net Long Positions: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [21].