大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8][11]. - In the future, it is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply glut situation will improve. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,200 - 61,640 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 16,093 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In April 2025, production was 73,810 tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 82,550 tons, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,176 tons, a 0.07% decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate is 66,208 yuan/ton, a 0.15% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,065 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica is 66,952 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, resulting in a loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Base - spread: On May 27, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium, which is bullish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is 131,779 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters increased by 0.87%, while the downstream inventory decreased by 1.36%, and other inventories decreased by 0.21%, which is bearish [8]. - Market Chart: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main players increased, which is bullish [8]. - Expectation: In April 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,336 tons, and next - month's import volume is forecasted to be 24,000 tons, a 15.3% decrease. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply glut situation will improve. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,200 - 61,640 [8]. - Likely Positive Factors: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - Likely Negative Factors: High - level supply from the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [10]. - Main Logic: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to reverse [11]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price and Basis: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.36%. The basis of most contracts decreased, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 2.36% [14]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and related products showed different degrees of change, such as a 0.29% decrease in the price of 6% lithium spodumene and a 0.8% decrease in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [14]. - Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium - ion batteries also changed to varying degrees [14]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend, with the price of 6% lithium spodumene decreasing by 0.29% [14]. - Production and Import: The monthly production and import volume of lithium ore changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed fluctuations [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore was in a state of imbalance, with demand generally exceeding production and import in most months [27]. - Carbonate Lithium - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) and the overall production showed different trends [30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume changed [30]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate was also in a state of imbalance, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [35]. - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from the smelting end and the causticizing end changed, and the overall production showed a slight decrease [17]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide changed, and the supply - demand balance also showed fluctuations [41]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate,外购 lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate import, recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes showed different trends [45][47][50]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different trends over time [52]. 3.6 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of lithium batteries showed fluctuations [56]. - Production and Sales: The monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries changed [56]. - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors showed fluctuations [61]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors changed [61][64]. - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials showed fluctuations [67]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly start - up rate, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary materials changed [67]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphate - Price: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed fluctuations [71]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly production volume, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate changed [71][74]. - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production volume, sales volume, and export volume of new energy vehicles changed, and the sales penetration rate also increased [79].