大越期货甲醇早报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic methanol market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to show a weak trend this week. The port market may face a turning point in inventory due to concentrated imports in the second half of the month, which will suppress the market. The inland market may decline due to sluggish sales in the traditional off - season and high inventory [5]. - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2180 - 2230 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, but the 20 - day line is downward with the price below the moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which are bearish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors: Some plants have stopped production, the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid plants have been put into production, and CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, the MTBE start - up rate has dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to sluggish sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: The spot price of methanol in various regions has changed, with some prices decreasing. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 3.45% week - on - week. The futures closing price also decreased, and the basis decreased by 16 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - Inventory data: As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 39.38 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.37 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 0.52 million tons to 24.98 million tons [5]. - Start - up rate data: The weighted average national start - up rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - Profit data: The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. For example, the profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 130 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged [20]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. The maintenance reasons include planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and equipment failures [57]. - Overseas plants: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are in different operating states, such as normal operation, start - up after restart, and maintenance [58]. - Olefin plants: Some olefin plants using methanol as raw materials are in operation, maintenance, or have plans for future maintenance. For example, some plants in the Northwest, East, Central, and other regions have different operating conditions [59].