广发期货《黑色》日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel prices were still weak with significant declines. The rebar price fell below the valley - electricity cost, but blast - furnace profits remained positive. Terminal orders decreased, affecting cold - rolled steel inventories. After the tariff reduction in May, demand recovered, and the April rush for re - export trade also supported demand. Short - term steel inventory pressure is expected to be low, supporting high production levels. However, steel prices are affected by the decline of carbon elements and the seasonal decline of hot - metal production. Negative - feedback trading may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fell weakly. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and arrivals were at a relatively low level. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined from its peak, and direct and indirect export orders for finished products were below expectations. The market is trading the negative - feedback expectation in advance. Although the terminal demand for finished products may weaken in the off - season, it still has some resilience. The decline of hot - metal production is limited. Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments, and the supply pressure will increase. Short - term iron ore prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support around 670 - 680 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coke has been lowered twice, and there are still 1 - 2 rounds of expected price cuts. On the supply side, due to the decline of downstream hot - metal production, coke enterprises' shipments slowed down, but production increased slightly, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May but declined slightly last week, and blast - furnace开工率 has shown signs of peaking. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventories are accumulating, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and steel mills' inventories are decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coking coal has been falling, and the futures market has a deep - discount structure with high hedging pressure. The supply is abundant, with high domestic coal production and weak imported coal prices. The demand side shows that coking production is increasing slightly, but downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. Coal mines' inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract fell. An Inner Mongolia large - scale factory partially shut down furnaces, reducing daily production. Supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, but inventories are still at a medium - high level. Some producers are suffering losses and reducing production. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined this week, and the demand for ferrosilicon is limited. The cost of semi - coke is weakly stable. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, but short - term demand lacks support, and costs may decline, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferromanganese futures main contract fluctuated weakly. In Inner Mongolia, some factories are resuming production, and the supply pressure is concentrated in the northern region. On the demand side, hot - metal production is declining, and the market is trading the negative - feedback expectation. The overall finished products are in the process of de - stocking, but the cold - rolled pressure is still large. Manganese ore prices are under pressure due to high future arrivals. In the future, the short - term supply pressure of ferromanganese is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices all declined. For example, rebar spot in East China decreased from 3150 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3230 to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China all decreased [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 4.1 to 872.4 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Rebar production increased by 4.9 to 231.5 tons, an increase of 2.2%, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 6.3 to 305.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.1 to 1398.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. Rebar inventory decreased by 15.7 to 604.2 tons, a decrease of 2.5%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.4 to 340.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 10.2 tons, an increase of 6.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 904.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also decreased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 131.7 to 77.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also decreased [4]. Supply - The global weekly iron ore shipments increased by 318.8 to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, but the weekly arrivals decreased by 83.3 to 2271.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5% [4]. Demand - The 45 - port average daily ore - removal volume increased by 3.2 to 327.1 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 682.2 to 8601 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 129.0 to 13858.79 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill imported - ore inventory decreased by 35.7 to 8925.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices decreased. The coke 09 contract decreased from 1375 to 1364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%, and the coke 01 contract decreased from 1391 to 1388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The coking profit decreased by 22 to - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.7% [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal decreased. The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased from 1030 to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 984.9 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The coking - plant inventory increased by 9.0 to 103.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, the steel - mill inventory decreased by 3.2 to 660.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.1 to 221.0 tons, a decrease of 1.8% [6]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 1.4 tons, an increase of 40.0% [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices decreased. The coking coal 09 contract decreased from 800 to 799.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%, and the coking coal 01 contract decreased from 813 to 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The sample coal - mine profit decreased by 17 to 382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.3% [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking - coal arrival price remained unchanged, while the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking - coal ex - warehouse price increased by 160 to 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0% [6]. Supply - The weekly raw - coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 2.8 to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the weekly clean - coal production increased by 1.9 to 459.2 tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 19.4 to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 19.2 to 865.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.1 to 301.0 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon futures main - contract price decreased from 5506 to 5452 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, but the production profits decreased. The production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 to - 156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.5 to 8.9 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, and the production - enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.8 to 30.4%, a decrease of 2.6% [7]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.0 to 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. Inventory - The 60 - sample - enterprise ferrosilicon inventory increased by 0.1 to 7.5 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the downstream average available days decreased by 0.2 to 15.2 days, a decrease of 1.6% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese futures main - contract price decreased from 5668 to 5616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ores in Tianjin Port decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi decreased, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 32.8 to - 203.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2% [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly manganese - ore shipments decreased by 16.5 to 68.6 tons, a decrease of 19.4%, but the weekly arrivals increased by 3.3 to 54.3 tons, an increase of 6.5% [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The weekly manganese - ore port inventory increased by 23.2 to 418.0 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferromanganese production increased by 0.2 to 16.5 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the operating rate increased by 0.6 to 34.2%, an increase of 1.74% [7]. Demand - The ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 12.7 tons, an increase of 0.8%. The ferromanganese procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group increased by 0.0 to 1.2 tons, an increase of 1.8% [7]. Inventory - The 63 - sample - enterprise ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.6 to 20.1 tons, a decrease of 2.9%, and the average available days decreased by 1.2 to 15 days, a decrease of 7.0% [7].