花旗：拼多多财报最新解读

Investment Rating - The report rates PDD Holdings Inc as Buy/High Risk with a target price of US$152, down from US$165, indicating a potential upside of 51.2% from the current price of US$100.51 [6][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant deceleration in transaction services revenue growth to 6% year-over-year in Q1 2025, compared to 33% in Q4 2024, attributed to a shift from a fully managed to a semi-managed model for Temu [1][2]. - PDD's management views its merchant support initiatives as long-term investments, which are currently impacting short-term profitability due to a mismatch between investment and return cycles [2][15]. - The company is implementing a RMB 100 billion subsidy program to support merchants, which is expected to enhance the ecosystem but may weigh on short-term profits [3][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, PDD reported total revenues of RMB 95.7 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, but falling short of estimates [11]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 16.9 billion, down 45% year-over-year, significantly below expectations [12]. - The company anticipates total revenues for FY 2025 to grow by 7% year-over-year to RMB 421 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 84.5 billion, representing a margin of 20% [24]. Investment and Growth Strategy - PDD is focusing on expanding into new product categories and exploring new business models to enhance its platform ecosystem [2][14]. - The company is committed to helping local merchants grow and fulfill more orders from local warehouses, which is expected to improve operational efficiency [2][20]. - Management emphasized the importance of supporting merchants to ensure the platform's long-term success, especially in a competitive and rapidly changing market [20][21]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that external challenges, such as tariffs, have prompted PDD to take proactive measures while maintaining regulatory compliance [13]. - The company is enhancing its marketing strategies, including additional coupons and direct discounts, to attract consumers and remain competitive [4][19]. - PDD's management acknowledges the limitations of its third-party marketplace model in competing with first-party platforms, leading to the launch of a dedicated National Subsidies Program channel [21].