花旗：小米财报最新解读

Investment Rating - The report rates Xiaomi shares as a Buy with a target price of HK$73.5, indicating an expected return of 42.6% [4][31][32] Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong margins in IoT and EV segments, with gross margins of 25.2% and 23.2% respectively [1][2] - The company anticipates a fine-tuning of its smartphone shipment target from 180 million to 175 million due to a soft global smartphone market, while maintaining a focus on improving product mix [1][12] - Upcoming catalysts include an investor day on June 3, the official launch of the YU7 model, and the introduction of AI smart glasses, which are expected to positively impact share price [1][22] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1Q25 was reported at RMB 111.3 billion, reflecting a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 47% year-over-year increase [2][13] - Gross margin improved to 22.8%, surpassing expectations, with significant contributions from IoT and EV segments [2][13] - Adjusted net income reached RMB 10.7 billion, marking a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 64% increase year-over-year [2][13] Segment Performance - The smartphone segment maintained a gross margin of 12.4%, while IoT gross margin was notably higher at 25.2% [2][12] - The EV segment showed a gross margin of 23.2%, attributed to cost optimization and improved operational efficiency [12][14] - Management expressed confidence in the large home appliance business, which saw a revenue increase of 114% and shipment growth of 65% [12][14] Earnings Estimates - The report raises the adjusted EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively, with 2025 EPS now projected at RMB 1.82 [11][14] - The forecast for adjusted net income in 2025 is set to grow by 74% year-over-year to RMB 47.4 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 23% [14][16] Valuation - The target price of HK$73.5 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, applying a 25.5x P/E for core business earnings and 1.5x P/S for the smart EV business [17][32] - The valuation reflects a strong growth outlook, supported by a projected 40%+ three-year adjusted EPS CAGR [11][17]