瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market shows an oscillating trend with increasing positions, strong basis, and a slightly bearish sentiment in the options market. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials for domestic smelters remains stable in the short - term, and the overall supply is expected to increase steadily. The demand from downstream copper processing enterprises is gradually weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The spot premium gradually converges, and downstream restocking provides some support for copper prices. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a widening green column near the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,870 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,629 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 169,462 lots, up 42,378 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are 11,510 lots, up 3,428 lots. The LME copper inventory is 162,150 tons, down 2,575 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 34,861 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,510 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 109 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 96 dollars/ton, down 8.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 640 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 40.08 dollars/ton, up 8.94 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,840 yuan/metal ton and 69,540 yuan/metal ton respectively, unchanged. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are 55,390 yuan/ton and 66,950 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan and 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid from Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 1,408.16 billion yuan, up 451.95 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 27,729.57 billion yuan, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.42%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.69%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.05%, down 0.0099 percentage points; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.83, down 0.0099 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. The profits of new - energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly. The profits of intelligent vehicle - mounted equipment manufacturing and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industries increased by 177.4% and 167.9% respectively. China's key - city real estate market is generally bottoming out and stabilizing. From January to April, the transaction volume of new and second - hand houses increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The improvement - oriented demand has become an important support for the new - house market. Many car companies have launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% and extending the payment period to 120 days. In May, the US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98. The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the S&P/CS 20 - city unadjusted housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year. The European Central Bank should postpone further interest - rate cuts until at least September. The US and the EU are accelerating trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2]