瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of May 28, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory increased by 1.89 million tons to 35.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%; sample enterprise orders to be issued increased by 1.47 million tons to 24.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [2] - As of May 28, China's methanol port inventory totaled 52.30 million tons, an increase of 3.26 million tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 4.40 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.14 million tons [2] - Recently, the output of domestic methanol maintenance and production - reduction related capacities is more than that of recovery - related capacities, and the overall output decreased slightly. Affected by weak demand, enterprise orders were not smooth, and the inventory of inland enterprises increased this week. This week, foreign vessels unloaded in a concentrated manner, and methanol port inventory stopped falling and rebounded. Jiangsu's提货 increased significantly, with limited inventory accumulation; Zhejiang's rigid demand was stable, and inventory accumulated under the supply of more foreign vessel unloading; South China port inventory showed a narrow - range destocking [2] - The restart of ethylene inspection devices in East China last week led to an increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2250 in the short term [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 840,031 lots, an increase of 17,472 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 117,763 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,600 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the East - West China spread was 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 256 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 327 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 245 euros/ton, an increase of 15 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread was - 71 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 32.7 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons; in South China ports, it was 16.34 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons; the methanol import profit was 5.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.93 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 78.77 million tons, an increase of 31.47 million tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 38,400 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 50.8%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.52%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate was 91.07%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points; the olefin operating rate was 83.82%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.8%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.04%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.86%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.85%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [2]