瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a relatively weak state. The overall supply growth rate may slow down due to production cuts and maintenance by upstream smelters. The demand from downstream battery material factories is limited, resulting in a sluggish spot market. The industry's total inventory accumulation has slowed down, with upstream still rapidly stockpiling and downstream and traders reducing inventory. The option market shows a bullish sentiment, but the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 60,380 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 30,172 hands, down 2,185 hands; the position of the main contract was 283,607 hands, down 10,088 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 200 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 33,854 hands/ton, down 300 hands [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 1,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 718 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 6,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 1,636 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2]. 3.1.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume was 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume was 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise operating rate was 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 28,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 53,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 123,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 127,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume was 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume was 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 25.21%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility was 20.99%, unchanged [2]. 3.1.6 Option Situation - The total call position was 225,887 contracts, up 12,522 contracts; the total put position was 83,681 contracts, up 9,576 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions was 37.05%, up 2.314 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.28%, down 0.0032 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - In April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. The profits of new - kinetic energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly [2]. - Many car companies launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% and extending the payment period to 120 days. There are concerns about supplier losses and vehicle quality and safety issues [2]. - Xiaomi Group's Q1 revenue increased by 47.4% year - on - year to 111.3 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit increased by 64.5% year - on - year to 10.68 billion yuan. The sales volume of Xiaomi SU7 Ultra has exceeded 23,000 units [2]. - In April, the number of new Tesla vehicle registrations in Europe decreased by 52.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative number in the first four months decreased by about 46% [2]. - BYD's blade battery and flash - charging blade battery passed all tests of the new battery national standard and obtained certification [2].