瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of trading lightly with a weak oscillation, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth, with an option market sentiment leaning towards bearishness. It is recommended to trade lightly with an oscillatory approach and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was 60 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 203,561 lots, up 1,088 lots; for alumina, they were 371,302 lots, down 9,474 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 58,850 tons, down 3,000 tons; the total alumina inventory was 219,801 tons, down 31,353 tons [2] - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,483 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 381,575 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum were 2,678 lots, up 6,026 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.09, down 0.03 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum were 53,542 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 141,289 tons, up 150 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the alumina basis was 269 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the electrolytic aluminum basis was 255 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points [2] - The alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2] - The alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.13%, down 0.10 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.97%, up 0.0084; the option call - put ratio was 0.69, down 0.0150 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March, with new - kinetic - energy industries growing rapidly [2] - China's key - city real - estate market showed a bottoming - out and stabilizing trend, with new and second - hand housing transactions increasing in the first four months [2] - Many car companies launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% with a 120 - day payment period [2] - US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, higher than all economists' expectations [2] - The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the S&P/CS20 major cities' housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [2] - The European Central Bank's Holzmann suggested postponing further interest - rate cuts until September [2] - The US and the EU may accelerate trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2] - The Guinea Alumina Company hopes to resume friendly negotiations with the Guinea government to lift restrictions on bauxite mining [2]