燃料油早报-20250528

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on May 28, 2025, presenting fuel oil data from May 21 - 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. This week, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore onshore, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a decline in US residual oil inventory. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and monthly spread after supply recovery. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the demand for fuel oil refinery feedstock has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued, resulting in a strong near - end of high - sulfur fuel oil. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium - to - long - term [4][5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -3.16 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -5.00 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.55 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -4.12 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -0.88 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.02 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -1.84 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | -8.12 | | 180cst M1 | -7.36 | | VLSFO M1 | -2.10 | | Gasoil M1 | -0.12 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -1.01 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -1.21 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -9.86 | | FOB VLSFO | -4.19 | | 380 Basis | -1.65 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -1.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -5 | | FU 05 | -16 | | FU 09 | -17 | | FU 01 - 05 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -12 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -16 | | LU 05 | -3 | | LU 09 | -16 | | LU 01 - 05 | -13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 13 | | LU 09 - 01 | 0 | [4]