建信期货生猪日报-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is boosted in the short - term due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, leading to a short - term small rebound in spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply - demand situation remains loose, and the prices are expected to be weak. The futures contracts are at a discount to the spot prices and are likely to continue to be weak due to the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and the expected出栏 of second - fattened pigs [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 28th, the main live pig contract 2509 opened slightly higher, then rose and fell, fluctuating downward and closing in the red. The highest price was 13,605 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,560 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,209 lots to 164,599 lots [8] - Spot Market: On the 28th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Demand Side: The current price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, and the pen utilization rate is relatively high. The enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased, and most are in a wait - and - see state. With the rising temperature, the terminal demand has weakened. But in the short - term, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday stocking, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On May 28th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 151,200 heads, an increase of 3,800 heads from the previous day and 10,000 heads from a week ago [9] - Supply Side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May was 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual出栏 volume in April. At the end of the month, the breeding side was more active in出栏. With the successive出栏 of previously second - fattened pigs, the出栏 weight remained high [9] 3.2. Industry News - From May 19th - 23rd, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from the previous week [12] - As of May 23rd, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 138 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised by purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/head [12][13] 3.3. Data Overview - From May 19th - 23rd, the national average出栏 weight was 129.38 kg, a decrease of 0.33 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [22] - From May 19th - 23rd, the slaughter volume of the slaughtering sample was 1.5964 million heads, a decrease of 500 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 144,347 heads, a decrease of 3,194 heads from the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 2.16% [22] - As of May 23rd, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 13.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of fattening pigs by purchasing piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then出栏 was 15.06 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [22]